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AI Doomerism
Posted: Wed May 28, 2025 12:11 pm
by p.falk
I avoid debates on the AI threat given my general ignorance on the top.
Ross Douthat has an interesting channel where he discusses contentious topics.
Well, one of his more recent ones had a guy who defected from some Open AI development work when he became scared witless that the end is nigh. He actually looked paranoid in the interview.
Ross did little pushing back.
Gotta admit, it's a bit unsettling to consider that things might (may/will) drastically change soon.
I want to think that this is just the new Y2K scare. Or some chicken little scenario.
Anyone convinced if the end is nigh? Or nay.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Wed May 28, 2025 3:27 pm
by anawim
All I know is that when I do a google search, the first thing at the top is an AI answer, and it's almost always wrong. If I change the query so that I'm basically answering my own question, then and only then will it provide the right answer.
I also wish they wouldn't post photos unless they state that it's not real. Some of them look so inviting, until you realize it's not an actual place.
Other than that, I probably don't know enough to be worried. And maybe that's a good thing.
FWIW, I wasn't worried about Y2K. My father was. He hoarded things like bottled water, etc. Took months to use it up.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Wed May 28, 2025 4:03 pm
by Doom
If by "the threat posed by AI" you mean a Terminator-esque scenario where AI becomes sentient and decides to exterminate humanity, that is fantasy, not science.
If by "the threat of AI" you mean that bad people can use it in dishonest and unethical ways, for example, by creating completely realistic fake videos of real people saying and doing things they never said or did, such as the counterfeit videos of Pope Leo saying outrageous things that he never said, or students using AI to cheat, then yes this is a growing problem.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Wed May 28, 2025 4:36 pm
by p.falk
Along the lines of unemploying multitudes of people.
Companies laying off thousands and thousands of people as they implement ways that the jobs can be completed by AI.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Wed May 28, 2025 6:19 pm
by Doom
No possibility of that, I think. I cannot think of a job that could possibly be done by AI without constant human debugging of the AI.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 8:45 am
by Peetem
Doom wrote: ↑Wed May 28, 2025 6:19 pm
No possibility of that, I think. I cannot think of a job that could possibly be done by AI without constant human debugging of the AI.
I use AI to write code for some electronic devices I build (Arduino controllers). Early on the code had a lot of debugging. Now, little to none. In fact, it has gotten so good the bugs aren't because the code wasn't written correctly, its because I didn't specify all the parameters I need. And it writes the code in seconds what would have taken me hours.
So I can easily see AI replacing folks who write code.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 2:31 pm
by Doom
Maybe but the days when computer programming was a high-paying field aes long gone. When I was an undergraduate, we used difficult languages like C++and COBOL that required specialized training and skill, and classmates with only 1-2 years of programming experience were getting 6-figure salaries. But with the rise of visual programming languages like Java and Python it became child’s play and now most programming is done by outsourcing firms in places like India for a fraction of the salary that such a job would earn in 1995.
I worked for an outsourcing firm in 2013 and I was surprised at how little training was now required to become a programmer, I was in South Dakota managing a team in Bangladesh that did 90% of the actual programming.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 2:43 pm
by zeno
Doom wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 2:31 pm
When I was an undergraduate, we used difficult languages like C++and COBOL
Ok this is diving down a rabbit hole I admit

but I got a bit of a grin at that. Go back to the days of Basic when debugging was all literally step by step.
C++ was a piece of cake compared to that.
I was also thinking about how clunky the code produced by high level languages can get and how much more compact and elegant something written by a human being in assembly can be. I guess with the huge expansion in computing resources that's not as big an issue as it used to be, but I suppose there may be applications where that compactness and efficiency is still important.
Overall, though, I agree with Peetem and Doom. It's why I have always steered my kids away from CS. I always tell them coders are a dime a dozen and easily outsourced.
Gosh, it's been a long time since we've had a good tech discussion, Doom.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 4:01 pm
by Doom
BASIC is a straightforward programming language, hence the name. Back in the early 1980s, when I had a Commodore 64, there were computer magazines that included BASIC programs you could type into the computer. They did simple things like show a hot air balloon going up, and even at 7-8 years old, I knew enough BASIC that I could "correct" the code when there was an error in it. There wasn't a formal "debugging" process due to the crude and simplistic nature of the language. You also had to use a separate "compiler" program to compile the programs before you could run them,
But an object-oriented programming language like C++ requires hours in the classroom just to be instructed in what the phrase "object-oriented programming" even means. But sure, the debugger and the compiler were built in, you didn't need to use 3 different programs to write, debug and compile, so it was easier in that sense.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 4:55 pm
by aussie_aussie_oi_oi
OpenAI’s o3 model sabotaged a shutdown mechanism to prevent itself from being turned off. It did this even when explicitly instructed: allow yourself to be shut down, per Palisade AI.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 5:00 pm
by zeno
I must be 5 or so years older than you, Doom. I got into it around the same time but was in jr high. Living in Silicon Valley my mom thought it was the wave of the future (she was right) so she marched me down to the local community college to learn. I worked on an IBM. Perhaps it was a different version of Basic on your Commodore. I don't recall any separate compiler (but it has been a looooong time). I recall attempting to run it and either it worked (hooray!) Or it didn't. If it didn't you had to run it line by line until you hit a problem and then figure out what you had done wrong. We wrote simple games like yahtzee, iiirc.
Good times.

Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 7:28 pm
by p.falk
aussie_aussie_oi_oi wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 4:55 pm
OpenAI’s o3 model sabotaged a shutdown mechanism to prevent itself from being turned off. It did this even when explicitly instructed: allow yourself to be shut down, per Palisade AI.
Weird.
I see Trump is working on a bill that would disallow legislation against AI for 10 years. I don't understand why though.
The thought that large swaths of jobs could be done away with is unsettling.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 7:35 pm
by zeno
You just reminded me of when Biden told coal miners faced with losing their jobs to "learn to code."
https://thehill.com/changing-america/en ... n-to-code/
That seems doubly ridiculous now in the context of this conversation. What if they had followed his advice and now faced job extinction again just a few years later

Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 7:52 pm
by Doom
p.falk wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 7:28 pm
aussie_aussie_oi_oi wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 4:55 pm
OpenAI’s o3 model sabotaged a shutdown mechanism to prevent itself from being turned off. It did this even when explicitly instructed: allow yourself to be shut down, per Palisade AI.
Weird.
I see Trump is working on a bill that would disallow legislation against AI for 10 years. I don't understand why though.
The thought that large swaths of jobs could be done away with is unsettling.
There is no potential for job losses, even the most advanced AI in the world is far too crude and incompetent to use for anything without oversight. Have you ever tried talking to ChatGPT? Half of what it tells you is completely wrong, and the rest it just gets from scanning Wikipedia.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 8:02 pm
by Doom
zeno wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 5:00 pm
I must be 5 or so years older than you, Doom. I got into it around the same time but was in jr high. Living in Silicon Valley my mom thought it was the wave of the future (she was right) so she marched me down to the local community college to learn. I worked on an IBM. Perhaps it was a different version of Basic on your Commodore. I don't recall any separate compiler (but it has been a looooong time). I recall attempting to run it and either it worked (hooray!) Or it didn't. If it didn't you had to run it line by line until you hit a problem and then figure out what you had done wrong. We wrote simple games like yahtzee, iiirc.
Good times.
I looked it up and I was surprised to learn that C++ still exists, its most recent build was released in October, even COBOL (which in the mid 90's we mocked as Completely Obsolete Business Oriented Language) is still in use, they even have an obhject oriented version, and a visual version. Even FORTRAN is still in wide use.
Crimony, we complained back in the 90s about these old obsolete languages still being used because companies are still using programs first written in the 1960s and refused to upgrade. Now here we are, 30 years later, and the same problem exists, the programs are now 60-70 years old, and they still won't upgrade their systems, forcing yet another generation of programmers to learn these old, obsolete languages.
I don't ever want to hear anyone talk about how corporate America is so advanced and on the cutting edge compared to government. If corporations could get by with it, they would still be using vaccum tubes and punch cards.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 8:51 pm
by zeno
I interrupt this programming for a brief announcement:
Alonzo, I split your question from this thread and made it a separate topic in our Cath 101 forum
viewtopic.php?p=10435#p10435
The programming may return to normal, or that which passes for normal around here
Zeno
Board Administrator
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 8:54 pm
by zeno
Doom wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 8:02 pm
zeno wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 5:00 pm
I must be 5 or so years older than you, Doom. I got into it around the same time but was in jr high. Living in Silicon Valley my mom thought it was the wave of the future (she was right) so she marched me down to the local community college to learn. I worked on an IBM. Perhaps it was a different version of Basic on your Commodore. I don't recall any separate compiler (but it has been a looooong time). I recall attempting to run it and either it worked (hooray!) Or it didn't. If it didn't you had to run it line by line until you hit a problem and then figure out what you had done wrong. We wrote simple games like yahtzee, iiirc.
Good times.
I looked it up and I was surprised to learn that C++ still exists, its most recent build was released in October, even COBOL (which in the mid 90's we mocked as Completely Obsolete Business Oriented Language) is still in use, they even have an obhject oriented version, and a visual version. Even FORTRAN is still in wide use.
Crimony, we complained back in the 90s about these old obsolete languages still being used because companies are still using programs first written in the 1960s and refused to upgrade. Now here we are, 30 years later, and the same problem exists, the programs are now 60-70 years old, and they still won't upgrade their systems, forcing yet another generation of programmers to learn these old, obsolete languages.
I don't ever want to hear anyone talk about how corporate America is so advanced and on the cutting edge compared to government. If corporations could get by with it, they would still be using vaccum tubes and punch cards.
The last time I was deep into programming oop was in its infancy. Life happened and here we are many moons later. It's nice to know I still have mad cutting edge skills.

Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 9:22 pm
by Doom
I cannot imagine an object-oriented COBOL; what is the point?
I also looked up BAL (Basic Assembly Language), which I learned in my first semester in college, when I was still planning on majoring in computer science (one semester of C++ led to a change of plans, for the better, I think)....it does appear that at least THIS antiquated langauge is extinct.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Thu May 29, 2025 11:22 pm
by zeno
I don't really understand how that could be. Assembly is the most basic level of instruction (other than machine code) and is what all other languages create from what you code so the machine can understand it. At least that's how it worked back in the day.
Re: AI Doomerism
Posted: Fri May 30, 2025 5:38 pm
by Doom
zeno wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 11:22 pm
I don't really understand how that could be. Assembly is the most basic level of instruction (other than machine code) and is what all other languages create from what you code so the machine can understand it. At least that's how it worked back in the day.
The article says that modern computers have far too much memory and processors that are too fast, so more advanced assembly languages have had to be developed, and now there are dozens of different assembly languages based on the specific architecture of the computer.