Negotiating with Iran

[Highlander]

My opinion is that you can't. Negotiate with Iran.

Over the last 15-20 years Iran has successfully adopted a technique of faux negotiation. Which it to pretend to negotiate to avoid sanctions or accountability or fighting. For itself and for its proxies. Then Iran has several years to advance its nuclear bomb program and to create havoc using its various terrorist arms. The West in general ... and Europe more than the USA ... falls for it every time. Much like the school yard bully who whacks some other kid and, when retribution appears certain, promises to do better. And then repeats the behavior himself or through a buddy.

Given my belief, I am concerned that Europe will stick its head in and complicate matters in what may be the last change to prevent Iran from creating a bomb with a delivery system. Or that Iran will pull the negotiation tactic once more.

We'll see.

[anawim]

Unlike many confrontations, Trump is holding this one closer to the vest than usual, and not saying much about what he might or might not do.

He left the G7 Summit early, which doesn't bode well, but there may be other scenarios that are possible.

I can't confirm this story, so who knows how much truth there is, but apparently an E-4B Nightwatch aircraft has landed at Andrews. It's basically a 'flying war room'. It may just be precautionary, but then again...

[anawim]

Iran is like the Eddie Haskell of modern politics.

[Highlander]

Iran's pattern is to make outrageous demands and then negotiate to a position where they get pretty much everything they want. Like the non-inspecting UN inspectors.

I read that Iran had made two demands before it would resume negotiations. First, the negotiations had to open with the original (before the Israeli attack) Iranian position as the starting point. Second, Iran had to be allowed a last strike without retaliation because Israel had gotten in the first punch.

I think that Iran will calculate when the US is about to enter the attack and then scream to the world that they are willing to abide by an unconditional cease fire and begin negotiations ... therefore nobody can attack them. And then resume a deep stall.

[Doom]

I don't think Israel is going to stop until the Iranian theocracy is toppled from within. And it might not take much to accomplish that, the Iranian people have attempted a revolution to topple the government repeatedly since 9-11, the atttempts failed because the West (including the Obama administration in 2009) reflexively took the side of the Iranian government to protect so-called "stability".

According to recent polls of Iran taken by Western polling firms, around 40% of the population profess to be atheists who are only pretending to be Muslim to appease the government. When you consider that Iran is a country where expressing the wrong opinion can get you killed, the fact that as many admit to being apostates from Islam suggests that the number of sincere Muslims is much smaller than we realize.

That the Iranian people would be losing faith in Islam should not come as a surprise; history shows that religious fanaticism in one generation tends to inspire skepticism and unbelief in later generations. Which is why European countries like Switzerland and the Netherlands, which were formerly the home of the most extreme Protestantism, are now fully secularized and liberal. Ditto places like formerly Puritan Massachusetts in the US.

[Highlander]

The US just introduced an novel negotiating tactic. We'll see how it plays out.

However, the initial Iranian negotiating response seems to be more of the same. Apparently, according to various Iranian sources, Iran was negotiating with the EU and the US in complete good faith, earnestly seeking peace, joy, and prosperity --- when the US derailed the negotiations.

I understand the negotiations with the EU boiled down to "You are doing this thing with nuclear weapons. No we aren't. Yes you are. No we aren't ...."

[Highlander]

The US just introduced an novel negotiating tactic. We'll see how it plays out.

However, the initial Iranian negotiating response seems to be more of the same. Apparently, according to various Iranian sources, Iran was negotiating with the EU and the US in complete good faith, earnestly seeking peace, joy, and prosperity --- when the US derailed the negotiations.

I understand the negotiations with the EU boiled down to "You are doing this thing with nuclear weapons. No we aren't. Yes you are. No we aren't ...."

[Highlander]

Apparently, some Iranian big wig proclaimed that Iran was on the path to beginning successful negotiation, when the US struck. The spokesman said something like, "We only needed a few more days to enter into problem resolving negotiation." Heard that song before.

[Highlander]

On the lee side of the strikes, as the US is asking for a renewal of negotiations, Iran appears to have pulled out the old play list and is making various unreasonable demands before any talks might begin.